Risks of Investment Projects: Assessment and Computer Modeling (St.Petersburg)

Target Audience:Specialists responsible for strategy, planning and scheduling, budgeting, investment project and business valuation in risky environment, Financial analysts, Specialists responsible for investment and credit decisions.Duration:2 days, 16 hoursProvider:Venue:St. Petersburg, Malaya Morskaya Street, 23, Ernst&Young conference rooms Language:Russian Coach: Alexey Kucherenko
 Alexey Kucherenko Alexey Kucherenko

Terms and Conditions

– The deadline for registration & payment is usually 5 days before the starting date of the course;
– Those who do not register and pay by the deadline will not be allowed to participate in the training;
– All payments are to be made by bank transfer;
– Once registration is closed, the fee is non-refundable.

 Training objectives and advantages

  • To present modern methods of risk and uncertainty analysis such as scenario analysis, factor analysis, Monte-Carlo modeling
  • To explain how to implement tornado diagram and Monte-Carlo distribution histogram in risk analysis process
  • To advice on risk criteria selection
  • To introduce new approach to risk: real option analysis
  • To develop systematic approach to risk analysis and practice in risk modelling.

Training program
Day 1
Definition of risk
 Risk and uncertainty relation
 Normal distribution function and other probability functions
 Risk measures: standard deviation SD, expected value EV, variance ratio SD/EV, Value at Risk (VaR)
Introduction to Financial Modeling
 Preparation of investment project model in MS Excel
 Accounting for inflation, taxes, competitors activities and other factors in computer modeling
Scenario analysis
 Essential scenarios of project progression analysis
 Factors’ analysis and presentation of results
in a spreadsheet and graphic format
 Sensitivity analysis and TORNADO diagram presentation in MS Excel
Day 2
Monte-Carlo simulation for risk analysis
 Essentials of the Monte-Carlo method
 Probability presentation of input factors
 Example of investment project calculation using Monte-Carlo analysis
 Distribution histogram presentation and computation of risk parameters: variation ratio SD/EV and negative result probability ratio
 Risk reduction modeling
 Example of computation of investment project NPV values array using the Monte-Carlo simulation
 Illustration of Monte-Carlo method application for financial option valuation
Decision Tree
 Illustration of event tree and decision tree application
 Decision tree analysis and evaluation
Real options method
 Examples of basic real options
 Binomial presentation of real options using simple decision tree
 Example of real option computation using Monte-Carlo method
 Bayes theorem and computer modeling to assess market research efficiency (Optional).


  • Training participants are provided with specially designed training materials in Russian.
  • The theory is illustrated by practical examples on personal computers.
  • Training participants are provided with practical examples studied in electronic format that can be used in their practical work.

All participants will receive a certificate of attendance

In case of questions or concerns, please, contact:
Alla Hovhannissyan, AEB North-Western Regional Committee Coordinator:
Tel. +7-911-012-6746